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Monday, November 9, 2009
US Morning Notes - USD & JPY lower tracking a rebound in risk appetite
FX Highlights
Read More... [Source: Easy-Forex - News and Reports - Posted by FreeAutoBlogger]
- The USD and JPY start Wednesday's session lower pressured by improving risk appetite as global equity markets rally and the price of gold and crude trade higher, the World Bank upgrades China's growth forecast, GBP supported by report of rising consumer confidence and services PMI, UK services PMI at its best level in two years, EU PPI weakens for the ninth straight month, Fitch cuts Ireland's rating limiting EUR gains, commodity currencies mixed as gold trades at new record high and Australia's retail sales decline
- Focus turns to today's release of US ADP employment, non-manufacturing ISM and FOMC policy decision
- Japan's Finance Minister Fujii shows Japan will issue more bonds this year to cover the tax shortfall, Japan's October monetary base expands 4.4%, BOJ Governor Shirakawa says that interest rates will remain low, JPY lower
- Australia's September retail sales fall 0.2%, building approvals rose 2.7%, PSI rises 5.5 points to 54.8, AUD higher
- UK October nationwide consumer confidence rises to its highest level since April 2008 at 72, BRC October shop price index unchanged, October services PMI rises to 56.9 from 55.3, GBP higher
- ECB's Weber says liquidity measures will expire on their own, EU September PPI falls 0.4%, October services PMI rises to 53 from 51.1, EUR higher
- Challenger October job cuts were 51% lower than last year
- White House officials warn against withdrawal of stimulus too quickly
- Chrysler October autos sales -32.3%, Ford October auto sales rose 2.6%, Toyota sales fell 3.5%, Nissian sales rose 5.6%, GM sales rose 4%, Kia sales rose 45.3%, Auto sales for October 10.46mln
- J & J plans to cut 8,200k jobs and will save more than a $1bln
- US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1.5% higher, Nikkei closed 41 points higher
Upcoming Events
- US - Wednesday, October ADP employment will be released expected at -190k compared to -263k last month along with October non manufacturing expected at 51.5 compared to 50.9 last month and the FOMC policy decision
- CAN - Wednesday , no major Canadian economic data is due for release today
Read More... [Source: Easy-Forex - News and Reports - Posted by FreeAutoBlogger]
Daily Forex Outlook - US Unemployment Rate passes 10%
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 9th November (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a surprise jump in the October Unemployment Rate to above the psychological 10% barrier kept the rebound in investor confidence contained on Friday with the stock market ending unchanged and the Dollar on the back foot. The actually figure of -190k was only slightly worse than forecasts of -175k but enough for commentators to agree that the Fed will not be raising rates in the next 6 months. In US Stocks, DJIA +17 points closing at 10023, S&P +3 points closing at 1069 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2112.
The Euro (EUR) traded briefly above the 1.4900 level as traders shrugged off the disappointing US jobs data to focus on the USD and US FED rates. Without heavy selling in the equity markets the Euro remained firm and closed at the 1.4850 level. EUR/JPY did struggle however as the Yen was broadly strong. September Industrial Orders were at 0.9% vs. 2.1% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4913 before closing at 1.4846. looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 11.5bn vs. 10.6bn previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained heavily against the dollar as the market began to once again favor the USD as the funding currency of choice. A weak US jobs number and lackluster equities meant crosses were at the mercy of the major and AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slipped. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.62 and a high of 90.85 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was very contained tracking the euro down then up again after the US data but sticking to a tight range. The Pair is struggling to gain above the 1.6600 level but is finding solid support below 1.6500. EUR/GBP is also staying in a tight range within the 0.8900 figure waiting for further direction. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6521 and a high of 1.6635 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as the market seized upon hawkish comments in the Quarterly Monetary Policy statement to argue for faster rate rises. Also noted in the report was the help that the strong AUD was having in keeping inflation down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9093 and a high of 0.9197 before closing the US session at 0.9174.
Oil & Gold (XAU) broke above the $1100 level briefly in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1101 before ending the New York session at USD$1095 an ounce. Fell heavily on concerns US consumer demand will be weaker as Unemployment grows. Crude Oil was down $2.19 ending the New York session at $77.43.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Euro - 1.4870
Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)
Yen - 89.85
Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).
Pound - 1.6650
Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).
Australian Dollar - 0.9210
Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).
Gold - 1098
Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00).
Oil - 77.80
Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).
Read More... [Source: Easy-Forex - News and Reports - Posted by FreeAutoBlogger]
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a surprise jump in the October Unemployment Rate to above the psychological 10% barrier kept the rebound in investor confidence contained on Friday with the stock market ending unchanged and the Dollar on the back foot. The actually figure of -190k was only slightly worse than forecasts of -175k but enough for commentators to agree that the Fed will not be raising rates in the next 6 months. In US Stocks, DJIA +17 points closing at 10023, S&P +3 points closing at 1069 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2112.
The Euro (EUR) traded briefly above the 1.4900 level as traders shrugged off the disappointing US jobs data to focus on the USD and US FED rates. Without heavy selling in the equity markets the Euro remained firm and closed at the 1.4850 level. EUR/JPY did struggle however as the Yen was broadly strong. September Industrial Orders were at 0.9% vs. 2.1% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4913 before closing at 1.4846. looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 11.5bn vs. 10.6bn previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained heavily against the dollar as the market began to once again favor the USD as the funding currency of choice. A weak US jobs number and lackluster equities meant crosses were at the mercy of the major and AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slipped. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.62 and a high of 90.85 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was very contained tracking the euro down then up again after the US data but sticking to a tight range. The Pair is struggling to gain above the 1.6600 level but is finding solid support below 1.6500. EUR/GBP is also staying in a tight range within the 0.8900 figure waiting for further direction. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6521 and a high of 1.6635 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as the market seized upon hawkish comments in the Quarterly Monetary Policy statement to argue for faster rate rises. Also noted in the report was the help that the strong AUD was having in keeping inflation down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9093 and a high of 0.9197 before closing the US session at 0.9174.
Oil & Gold (XAU) broke above the $1100 level briefly in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1101 before ending the New York session at USD$1095 an ounce. Fell heavily on concerns US consumer demand will be weaker as Unemployment grows. Crude Oil was down $2.19 ending the New York session at $77.43.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.4702 | 1.4811 | 1.4870 | 1.4927 | 1.4959 |
| USD/JPY | 89.20 | 89.62 | 89.85 | 91.32 | 91.62 |
| GBP/USD | 1.6402 | 1.6467 | 1.6650 | 1.6693 | 1.6742 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8971 | 0.9026 | 0.9210 | 0.9218 | 0.9329 |
| XAU/USD | 1080.00 | 1084 | 1098.00 | 1101.00 | 1107.00 |
| OIL/USD | 75.00 | 76.50 | 77.80 | 78.00 | 80.00 |
Euro - 1.4870
Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)
Yen - 89.85
Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).
Pound - 1.6650
Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).
Australian Dollar - 0.9210
Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).
Gold - 1098
Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00).
Oil - 77.80
Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).
Read More... [Source: Easy-Forex - News and Reports - Posted by FreeAutoBlogger]
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